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- ItemFORECASTING THE NIGERIAN CASHEW NUT PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED AREAS(ATBU BAUCHI, 2023-09) Mahmud H.U and Adebayo C.OThe main purpose of this study was to forecast Nigeria total cashew nut area production and total crop harvested. Forecasting future land that may be used under cultivation will help Nigeria Government to make policies on available land use and further cash crop production capacity. Projection of total cash crop production is important for implementing proper measures to increase earnings from exports in the country. The study was conducted to forecasts total area and production for Cashew in Nigeria. The findings of the study are based on data from the years (1961 to 2020) and was taken from the database of FAO (2022). ARIMA Models from time series analysis were applied. In the model selection criteria, the model with the lowest Akaike coefficients, SBIC, AIC, sum of squared residual and Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPEs) of forecasting values were used in selecting an adequate model. Thus, ARIMA 1,1,0 was selected for both the harvested area and total production. Forecasting of the data was done up to 2040. The forecasted values were area harvested (190,779.74ha) and production (129,541.18 metric tonnes). The study presents an insight to national policy makers regarding this essential crop and provides them with a reference range of values in area harvested and production in future so that they may be able to effectively deal with cashew production in Nigeria.
- ItemEffects of labour migration on cassava farming households: A case study of Ekiti local government area of Kwara State, Nigeria(2024-09-30) Hussaina Ummikhanni MAHMUD, Ibrahim Akintunde BASHIRU & Zainab Tope SAKALabour migration in rural communities in Nigeria significantly impacts agricultural productivity and food security, particularly for cassava, a staple crop. This study examines the effects of labour migration on cassava productivity among farmers in Ekiti Local Government, Kwara State, Nigeria. A multi-stage sampling procedure was used to obtain 100 cassava farmers. Data collection employed structured questionnaires, with descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis used to determine socioeconomic characteristics and predict labour migration. Descriptive statistics reveal an average household head age of 46.34 years (SD = 10.795), household size of 5 members (SD = 1.268), education level of 2.22 (SD = 1.834), and farming experience of 20.50 years (SD = 9.125). Average annual income is ₦2,323,597.01 (SD =₦1,043,094). These demographics indicate an aging farming population, limited education, and moderate economic stability. Logit regression analysis yields a strong model fit (χ2 = 80.250, p < 0.001) and accurately classifies 74.0% of cases. Extension services (β = 4.167, p < 0.05), remittances (β = 0.000, p < 0.05), and credit access (β = -4.876, p < 0.05) significantly predict labour migration. Demographic factors do not exhibit statistical significance. The study concludes that labour migration adversely affects cassava productivity among farmers in the study area. Therefore, policy interventions are recommended to enhance farmers’ quality of life, productivity, and income to mitigate labour migration’s adverse effects. This includes improving access to credit, extension services, and market information, providing basic amenities, and empowering farmers through income-increasing progams.
- ItemTRENDS, INSTABILITY, AND DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF CASHEW NUTS PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA (1981-2021)(Bayero University, Kano Centre for Entrepreneurship Research and Training, 2024-06) Mahmud H.U, Adebayo C.O and Elrasheed M.MNigeria is the largest producer of cashew nuts in Africa and consistently ranking within the five global producers. Despite the abundant opportunities, its productivity has remained far below its potential. Therefore, this paper analyzed the trend, instability, and decomposition of cashew nuts production in Nigeria for three periods namely Period I (1981-2021), Period II (1981–2001), and Period III (2002–2021). In Period I, harvested area, yield and production exhibited both quadratic and cyclical trend effects with an increasing trend. While both Periods II and III, exhibits a linear trend, harvested area, yield and production at an increasing rate for Period II and decreasing rate for Period III. Harvested area for the three periods was relatively stable, there was instability in the fluctuations of yield and production for the whole periods. The decomposition analysis revealed an increase in production which was largely due to expansion of harvested area for the three periods, while the interaction between area and yield effect declined production output by 0.348%,0.26% and 0.21%. The study also found that production output has the highest instability index 67.76). To further stabilize cashew production in Nigeria, there is need for efficient resources allocation, coupled with flexible production systems.
- ItemDETERMINANTS OF TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY IN CROP PRODUCTION AMONG SOME COMMERCIAL CROP FARMERS IN NIGER STATE, NIGERIA(Faculty of Agriculture and Agricultural Technology, ATBU, Bauchi, Nigeria, 2022) Mahmud, H.UThe study was designed to find out the determinants of technical efficiency in production of some commercial crops in Niger State. Primary data was used for the study. Crop production was found to be inelastic with a decreasing return to scale for the farmers. The distribution and level of technical efficiencies for the farmers examined was found to be 74.2%. There was a significant difference in the technical efficiency level obtained. The determinants of technical efficiency observed in the study were age, household size, education level, farming experience and credit access for the farmers. The result showed that there was a statistically significant relationship between the socio-economic factor and technical efficiency in crop production. It further indicated that 3.9% of the total variation in aggregate food crop production by these farmers was due to technical inefficiency. The study concluded that crop farmers are yet to achieve their best, as shown by their low technical efficiency (TE) value and low output levels, thus, calling for critical examination of technical efficiency, as a means of examining the role of higher efficiency level on agricultural output, particularly in the study area.
- ItemDETERMINANT FACTORS OF TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY IN YAM PRODUCTION IN MORO LGA, KWARA STATE, NIGERIA.(Faculty of Agriculture and Agricultural Technology, ATBU, Bauchi, Nigeria, 2023) Ismail, U. O. and Mahmud, H.UThis paper investigates the determinants factors of technical efficiency using the stochastic frontier production function which incorporates the inefficiency model. A sample of 150 yam farmers were randomly selected from 17 wards of Moro LGA in Kwara State, Nigeria. Data was collected from the respondents with the aid of a structured interview schedule. The empirical result showed that land size, fertilizer, seedling, and use of herbicides were the main factors determining technical efficiency while age, experience, household size and contact with extension agent were the main determinants of the technical inefficiency of yam farmers. The mean technical efficiency was 0.636 which means that 36.4% of the technical output was not achieved. The result also indicates that land size, fertilizer, seedling, and herbicides are significant in yam production. And a significant relationship between age, household size, extension contact and years of experience and the output of the yam producers as it influences their technical efficiencies. The study concludes that land size, fertilizer, seedling, and use of herbicides were the main factors determining technical efficiency while age, experience, household size and contact with extension agent were the main the main determinants of inefficiency and thus recommends youths be encouraged to form cooperative organization and into yam production with attractive incentives like easy access to farm inputs, cooperate financing, easy exposure to markets.