Spatio Temporal Land Use Land Cover Change Mapping of Malete Elemere: Implication on Development Planning of Emerging Communities
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Date
2019-07
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
International Journal of Environment, Agriculture and Biotechnology (IJEAB) http://dx.doi.org/10.22161/ijeab/2.4.65
Abstract
The use of Ecosystem and Biodiversity
mapping, land use land cover change detection has been
advocated in preparation of developmental master plan in
towns and cities. Noticeable changes have been observed
within Malete Elemere community since the establishment
of Kwara State University Malete, yet its spatial pattern
and socio ecological implication have not been
investigated. This work seek to determine and produce
land cover land use change map of Malete Elemere over
the last 10 years and post 15 year periods through change
detection techniques so as to evaluate the impact of the
establishment of Kwara State university on the settlement
spatial development. Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic
Mapper Plus (ETM+) satellite images of 2005, 2010 and
2015 of the study area were acquired from USGS at
spatial resolution of 30 m. Radiometric correction were
applied to all the images using radiance modules in
Idrisi32 with radiance spectral value set at DN 0 (Lmin)
and 255 (Lmax). An unsupervised classification was
carried out on the composite images of bands 4,3,2,1 for
all the selected years to identify possible maximum
spectral reflectance classes, this was followed by
supervised classification using training sample from the
field survey from which image to image spatio-temporal
changes statistics were extracted. To generate a
prediction of LULC changes for 2025, Cellular
Automata-Markovian transition estimator (CA-Markov)
in Idrisi32 was used. Various Kappa statistics was used to
evaluate the performance of prediction with an average K
statistics of above 0.83 recorded. The result shows that
built up area gained an astronomical increase (180%)
between 2005 and 2015 while forest lost significantly
(34%) within the same periods, with most of the gains
occurring in 2010 and 2015 after the establishment of
KWASU. By 2025, two Major growth pole centres will
emerge along Malete Elemere Axis and one minor in
Jenkunu Omoni Axis which will exert a great stress on
infrastructural facilities and may create a chaotic
condition if left unattended to.