Prediction and Simulation of Kainji Hydropower Reservoir Operation in Nigeria
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Date
2022-04
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Abstract
Kainji hydropower reservoir streamflow was forecast from 2017 to 2050 using measures historical streamflow data and
Markov model. The model was evaluated with statistical parameters. Various percentage of water stored in the reservoir as
Ecological Flow Release (EFR) were used to simulate future generation taking hydropower equation and operational
constraints into consideration. It was observed that the model forecast the sreamflow adequately with coefficient of
determination (R2
), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Relative Bias (RB) and correlation coefficient (r) of: 0.98, 0.10, 0.002 and
0.99 respectively. Total simulated energy generation reduces as EFR percentage increases. The energy generation simulated is
greater than the observed generated energy for the scenarios. The outcomes of this study can be applied to the Kainji
hydropower operational management.