ARMA MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF SOLAR RADIATION IN KANO-NIGERIA

Ibrahim S. Madugu, B. J. Olufeagba, Yinusa A. Adediran, A. Abdulkarim F. Abdulkadir, James. U. Inaku, Olalekan Ogunbiyi, O. Ibrahim, A. U. Lawan and Mubarak A. Afolayan

ARMA MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF SOLAR RADIATION IN KANO-NIGERIA

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ARMA MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF SOLAR RADIATION IN KANO-NIGERIA(481.79 KB)

Date

2019

Authors

Ibrahim S. Madugu, B. J. Olufeagba, Yinusa A. Adediran, A. Abdulkarim F. Abdulkadir, James. U. Inaku, Olalekan Ogunbiyi, O. Ibrahim, A. U. Lawan and Mubarak A. Afolayan

Publisher

Zaria Journal of Electrical Engineering Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria – Nigeria.

Abstract

Statistical approach is one of the most prominent ways of forecasting a trend of a time series data such as solar radiation. This paper explore the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARMA) model using Box and Jenkins methodology to determine the most parsimonious model of Kano, Nigeria solar radiation time series. The result obtained showed that ARMA(3,0) has the least value of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Sum Of Square (SSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Theil’s U-Statistics with 0.0004, 0.0422, 0.0388 and 0.0061 respectively. Therefore ARMA(3,0) is the best model that fits the solar radiation data and hence the most parsimonious.

URI

https://kwasuspace.kwasu.edu.ng/handle/123456789/2615

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