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- ItemEffect of Ethnic Fractionalisation on Informality in Sub-Saharan Africa.(Al-Hikmah Journal of Economics, 2024) Abdulkareem Abdulhafis OlagunjuThis study examined the effect of ethnic fractionalisation on informality in Sub-Saharan Africa, utilising two measures of informality (viz: Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) and Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC)) and employing a theoretical proposition on ethnic fractionalisation and economic dualism theory as the theoretical framework. Conducting a unit root test and then using the Kao panel test for the cointegration of data from 1993 to 2021, the paper aimed to establish a long-run relationship among the variables. Panel ARDL estimation technique was then utilised to analyse the data. Findings revealed a positive effect of ethnic fractionalisation on the informal sector, in line with the proposition advanced in the paper. Also, the control variables, comprising economic development, unemployment, educational attainment, and World governance combined indicators, were all found to have the expected effects on informality. The study concluded with recommendations for policymakers to formulate and implement policies aimed at reducing the rather undesirable effect of ethnic fractionalisation on the size of the informal economy and to also check the extent of informality effectively through other targeted interventions.
- ItemEffect of Unemployment on Output Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from Okun’s Law.(Al-Hikmah Journal of Economics, 2024) Abdulkareem Abdulhafis OlagunjuAbstract The study investigated the effects of unemployment on economic growth and the agricultural, industrial and services sectoral output growth. To achieve this, economy wide output growth and sectoral output growth models were specified, using the neoclassical theory-based economy-wide and sectoral growth accounting equations as the main theoretical framework. In addition to the unemployment rate, 5 control variables (viz: labour force growth, private capital stock growth, foreign direct investment, government expenditure and literacy rate) were also included in all equations while the 3 sectoral output growth variables for the agricultural, industrial and services sector were the dependent variables. The OLS estimation method was employed, appropriate diagnostic tests were carried out, and remedial econometric measures were adopted to ensure the validity of the model estimates. Annual data covering the period of 1999 to 2022, sourced from the CBN, the World Bank and the IMF databases were employed in the analysis. It was found from the study that unemployment has a negative effect on economic growth as well as output growth in each of three sectors (viz: agricultural, industrial and services). Based on this finding, it is recommended that the authorities formulate and implement policies that will reduce the unemployment rate.
- ItemEconomic Diversification in Recession: A Case of Nigerian Agriculture as a Sign Post for National Development and Sustainable Growth.(IJASEPSM International Journal of Advanced Studies in Economics and Public Sector Management., 2017-01-15) Shitu, Abdul MuftahNigerian economy after 56 years of independence, has witnessed once again a downward trajectory in her efforts to achieve sustainable development. The current world statistics in African economy in the mid-year of 2016 has rated Nigerian economy as second largest economy next to South Africa with Gross Domestic product (GDP) of $296 billion U.S. dollars. South Africa economy was considered as the largest economy in African continent with GDP of $301 billion U.S. dollars during the second and third quarter of 2016.This is a reversed trend. In 2014 Nigerian economy was rated as the largest and leading economy using 2014 rebase figures. Recently, International Monetary Fund (IMF) observed that by the end of the year (2016) Nigerian economy would be the largest economy in Africa with GDP of $415 billion U.S. dollars. The present recession faced by the economy has led to a negative growth of 2.06% on the first and second quarters of the year (2016). Economic diversification discourse in recent times in the country with regard to policy of 'BUHARINOMICS' (i.e. change Agenda) as an attempt to re-engineering the economy is focused and dominated on development of agriculture and other non-oil exports. Agriculture has become an arrow head and engine for economic recovery, growth and diversification. This study therefore examines the significant role and obvious comparative advantage of agricultural production as an intervention variable to solving poverty and economic recession. To this end, the paper adopts historical, evaluative and current issues or perspectives to analyze the importance of the sector to Nigerian economy. Neoclassical model and Agricultural Development Strategy were incorporated into the study to investigate and analyze constraints and challenges in Nigerian agriculture which has been abandoned for decades because of wealth of oil and gas production (Dutch Disease).In order to make the sector a sign post for accelerated growth and development, the paper concluded that increased expenditures (i.e. spending), savings and capital investments by government and private initiatives must be sustained in the sector. This would quicken recovery and induce increased agricultural productivity in the economy thereby leading to forward and backward integration in the economy.
- ItemEconometrical Analysis of Determinants of Cash Flow of Institutional Lenders in Nigerian Agriculture: Macroeconomic Variables Perspective(IOSR-JHSS International Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 2013-10-15) Shitu, Abdul Muftah; Mshelia, I. ShaibuThe purpose of the study is to examine the determinants of cash flow of institutional lenders in Nigerian agriculture. These determinants are deposit liability, Interest rate, reserve requirement, profit (revenue) and tenure of cash flow. The paper analyses the relationship between these macroeconomic variables and cash flow of institutional lender in Nigerian agriculture. Econometric method was used and linear functional form provided the best fit to estimate the relationship. The results revealed that deposit liability, interest rate and reserves requirement of the monetary authority were important and significant in explaining variability in the level of cash flow of institutional lenders in Nigerian agriculture. Correlation analysis indicated a strong and positive relationship (r = 0.98) movement between the determinants of cash flow. There was a high coefficient of determination (R2) value of 96%. However, the elasticity of the estimated co-efficient revealed that percentage (%) change in the deposit liability, reserves requirement and interest rate made cash flow in agricultural sector to change by 0.52%, 15% and -71.5% considerably. The study concludes that for health cash flow to be meaningful and productive in Nigerian agriculture, early disbursement of credit, feasibility studies, elimination of defective and dysfunctional productive environment, check mating diversion of credit by farmers and evaluating and monitoring of repayment program must be sustained by institutional lenders and other collaborative bodies. Moreover, supportive government credit guidelines and reformed monetary policy as well as desirable financial services, products and technologies need to be proactive to guarantee effective cash flow into Nigerian agriculture. Key Words: cash flow, institutional lenders, agricultural productivity, credit and macro economic variables.
- ItemEconomics of Begging: A Critical Assessment of Socio-Economic Determinants of Begging in Nigeria(Uniilorin Journal of Adminstration and Development, 2025-02-25) Shitu, Abdul Muftah; Biala, Illias Musa; Odedokun, O. Mathew; Olatunji Mansur Shasi; Jimoh, O. Sodiq; Akande, O. Rasheedat; AbdulKareem, K. k. HauwaThe prevalence of begging as an informal activity is a social issue that is prominent mostly in urban areas of many developed and developing countries. While it may be viewed as a way of getting a means of livelihood, it is usually associated with underlying socio-economic issues like unemployment and poverty, and sometimes associated with criminal activities and deceit. This is why some developed countries have outrightly banned begging and some developing countries employ different means to control begging activities. However, to truly understand the problem of begging and tackle the issue at the policy level would require the knowledge of what motivates people to beg and how the supply of the activity responds to changes in the income of the participants. This study therefore examines the socio-economic determinants of begging as an informal economic activity and estimates the income elasticity of begging in Kwara State, Nigeria. A stratified random sampling technique was employed to gather data from 153 beggars in the 16 Local Government Areas of the State using questionnaire and face-to-face interview as the research instruments. The study employed the Ordinary Least Squared (OLS) technique to analyze the data collected given the nature of the dependent variable which is continuous and non-negative. The marginal effect was computed to know the partial effect of each of the explanatory variables on the dependent variable - years of begging. Findings reveal that employment status, access to public goods, physical challenges, and hereditary factors are significant determinants affecting the duration of begging. Specifically, stable employment and access to essential public services, like education and healthcare, are associated with a reduced reliance on begging while physical disabilities and a family history of begging are positively associated with prolonged begging, indicating structural barriers that hinder economic self-sufficiency. Further findings indicate a positive income elasticity of begging which implies that increased earnings from begging reinforce this activity, suggesting a cycle of dependency where financial returns motivate individuals to continue begging. The study concludes that begging is a complex socio-economic phenomenon, with individual and systemic factors jointly contributing to its persistence. Policy-wise, it is recommended that policymakers focus on job creation targeting marginalised and vulnerable populations; disability pensions and employment support for the disabled; improved access to public goods such as quality education, healthcare, and infrastructure and commuunity-led initiatives aimed at the social and economic reintegration of beggars.