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- ItemINVESTIGATING THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON DOMESTIC CREDIT VOLUMES: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA(Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, 2025-06-30) Yusuf Toyin Yusuf a,, Noah Afees Oluwashinabc, Abdul Muftah Shitua , Muktar Sabi Adamua & Lukman AdamaIncreasing domestic credit is crucial for economic growth, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria, where it enables firms to mitigate exchange rate risks during periods of financial instability. This study employs the first-generation speculative attack model as its theoretical framework to examine the long-run asymmetric impact of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic credit in Nigeria from 1973 to 2022. The Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model is utilised to capture potential asymmetries. Notably, the findings indicate that currency appreciation shocks have stronger and more persistent effects on domestic credit compared to depreciations. Additionally, foreign interest rates and gross domestic product are identified as key drivers of credit expansion, while the domestic interest rate proves ineffective, underscoring structural vulnerabilities in monetary policy transmission. In light of these findings, policymakers should consider implementing asymmetric capital buffers and dynamic loan-to-value ratios to address the disproportionate impact of currency appreciation on credit expansion. Furthermore, adopting a managed float exchange rate system with strategic interventions is recommended to mitigate disruptive foreign exchange volatility
- ItemFinancialisation and Industrial Output Growth in West Africa: Moderating Effect of Environmental Regulation(AL-Hikmah Journal of Economics (AJEC), 2026-02-23) Oluwafemi Emmanuel Adewumi, Sodiq Olaiwola Jimoh, Lukman Shehu Adam, Adamu Muktar Sabi & Amina Mama UsmanThe industrial sector in West Africa has faced persistent volatility arising from macroeconomic instability, infrastructural gaps, and external shocks, limiting sustained industrial growth. Despite regional initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area, challenges related to production costs, access to finance, and governance continue to constrain industrial performance. This study examines the relationship between environmental regulation, financialization, and industrial output growth in 16 West African countries from 1990 to 2023. Using panel data techniques and the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, the study assesses both the direct effect of financializationand the moderating role of environmental regulation. The results show that financializationis associated with lower industrial output growth, indicating a shift of resources away from productive industrial activities. In contrast, effective environmental regulation improves industrial performance by reducing the adverse influence of financialisation. Countries with stronger regulatory frameworks record relatively higher industrial growth outcomes. The findings further suggest that poorly regulated financial liberalisationcan weaken industrial development, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises. The study emphasisesthe need for coordinated policies that strengthen environmental regulation, improve financial sector governance, and support long-term industrial investment to achieve sustainable industrial development in West Africa.
- ItemInflation Dynamics in Nigeria: A Disaggregated Approach(Lafia Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 2025-06-30) Shehu Usman Adam, Sodiq Olaiwola Jimoh, Muktar Sabi Adamu, Yusuf Toyin Yusuf, Lukman Shehu Adam & Abdul Muftah ShituThis study examines inflation dynamics in Nigeria using a disaggregated approach, focusing on key sectors such as food, energy, housing, water, health, and transport. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the study analyses the determinants of disaggregated inflation and the role of macroeconomic variables in shaping price movements. The findings reveal strong inflation inertia across sectors, with past inflation significantly influencing current price changes. In the food sector, the first lag of food price inflation exerts a dominant effect, while GDP growth negatively impacts food inflation in Nigeria. The energy, housing, and water sectors experience persistent inflationary pressures, but the effects diminish after four months, possibly due to government interventions. Similarly, the transport sector exhibits lagged inflationary effects, with money supply (GM2) and central bank independence (CBI_INDEX) playing crucial roles. The variance inflation factor (VIF) results suggest minimal multicollinearity, while heteroskedasticity tests indicate that inflation in the health and transport sectors is highly sensitive to economic shocks. These findings underscore the need for appropriate policies like enhancement of monetary policy transmission and stabilize food/oil markets while deregulating energy sectors and upgrading infrastructure. Prioritize healthcare supply chain improvements and transport fuel pricing reforms to address sectoral inflation.
- ItemTrade and Sustainable Development: The Nigeria-China Experience(2024-04-18) Abdulkareem, Hauwah K. K.; Jimoh, Sodiq Olaiwola; Akande, Rashidat SumbolaThe significance of Nigeria-China bilateral trade relations has evolved over the years in nature, scope, and impact, making it imperative for mainstream research to analyze its potential implications for sustainable development. This paper assessed the impact of Nigeria-China bilateral relations on sustainable development for both countries from 1980-2020. The Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model was used to evaluate how bilateral trade intensities influence sustainable development. Findings show that Nigeria’s export to China wields a positive and significant impact on Nigeria’s sustainable development while China’s export to Nigeria has a negative and significant impact on Nigeria’s sustainable development. Further findings reveal that Nigeria’s export to China does not have any significant impact on China’s sustainable development, while China’s export to Nigeria produced a positive and significant impact on China’s sustainable development. The paper concludes that while trade propels sustainable development, it can also be detrimental through over-reliance on imports and the employment of unsustainable trade practices. In terms of policy import, Nigeria needs to improve its value addition, product innovation, and production processes to improve product standards and international competitiveness. Furthermore, the Nigerian and Chinese governments should invest substantially in research and development of green transport modes for importation activities and ensure their commitment to the Voluntary Sustainability Standards (VSS) to make the Nigeria-China trade relations holistically sustainable.
- ItemExamining the Effect of Government’s Social Expenditure on Unemployment in Nigeria(2024-06-04) Akande, Rashidat Sumbola; Aboderin, Kafayat OThis study examines the effect of government social expenditures on unemployment in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022. Using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method to analyse both the short- and long-run effects, the results revealed that population growth had a significant positive impact on unemployment, while education expenditure showed a positive but insignificant effect. Conversely, health and infrastructural expenditures demonstrated negative impacts on unemployment, suggesting that investment in these areas contributes to reducing unemployment. Based on these findings, it is recommended that policymakers increase public investment in the health sector and infrastructure. This could involve expanding healthcare infrastructure, enhancing funding for medical training programmes, and improving healthcare delivery systems. Furthermore, the government should prioritise and scale up infrastructure development projects, such as road construction, public transportation systems, and urban development initiatives. These projects have the potential to stimulate job creation across various sectors, including construction, maintenance, and management, thereby addressing unemployment and fostering economic development.