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Analysis of Trade Effects of Parallel Exchange Rate in Nigeria
(Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 2024) Oluwatosin Juliana Oyetayo; Felix Gbenga Olaifa; Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi
The study examines the potency of parallel exchange rates in the movement of international trade in Nigeria. The monetary authorities have embarked on various exchange rate regimes basically because the supply of foreign exchange is not enough to meet the demand. Consequently, a parallel market for exchange rates exists and has become a strong and functional market in the country. But the reason for managing foreign exchange and by extension, introducing various exchange rate regimes was to correct the balance of trade disequilibrium. Yet the balance of trade deteriorates, particularly that of non-oil trade balance. Does the parallel exchange rate contribute to this or does it ameliorate it?
Are the Determinants of Imports Similar Across Manufactured Products? Evidence from Nigeria
(Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 2018-12) Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi; Felix Gbenga Olaifa; Rashidat Sumbola Akande
The study investigates the determinants of selected manufactured imports in Nigeria with a special focus on the role of domestic production. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) in the context of new trade theory was utilised with data coverage between 1985 and 2016. Results show that imports of various manufactured products are affected differently by some factors. In particular, domestic output of electrical & electronics have a significant and negative effect on own imports. However, there was no significant effect of domestic production of petroleum products on imports of the same goods. Also, the effect of domestic output of food & beverages on imports of same product is positive. Further, the sensitivity of imports to exchange rate changes differ across products, in some it have immediate effect while in some it delays for a year. In the same vein, while GDP is an important driver of imports of some products, it is unimportant for some. Also, it is only food & beverages imports that significantly respond to change in tariffs. The overall conclusion from this study is that drivers of import demand differ across products.
Determinants of Welfare Effect of Trade Flows in sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Evidence from SADC and COMESA
(Public Administration & Regional Studies, 2023) Olaifa, Felix Gbenga; Oluwasegun Olawale Benjamin; Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi
This study investigated the determinants and welfare effects of intra-Sub Saharan Africa trade from 1996 to 2021. The study utilized Negative Binomial Pseudo Maximum Likelihood for the analysis. The study's findings revealed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population, distance, time taken for import, bilateral real exchange rate, voice and accountability, law and order, and government effectiveness are the key determinants of trade flows in SADC. Furthermore, the results indicated that GDP, population, distance, common official language, landlocked of both countries, time taken for import procedures to be completed, bilateral real exchange rate, reduction in political instability and absence of violence, and regulatory quality determined trade flows in COMESA. The study also found that intra-regional trade leads to welfare reduction for SADC member countries and a welfare-enhancing situation for COMESA. Thus, the study recommended that policymakers give transportation facilities the required attention to reduce trade barriers. Also, the policymakers in SADC should introduce policies and incentives that will encourage members to import from other members of the bloc. Finally, policies towards making the governance institutions and security apparatus viable should be implemented to promote trade and enhance welfare in SADC and COMESA. Keywords: trade flow; welfare; sub-saharan African; sadc; comesa; NBPML
Exchange Rate Volatility Effect of Covid-19 Pandemic: The Nigeria case
(Department of Economics, University of Lagos, 2022-03) Felix Gbenga Olaifa; Oluwatosin J. Oyetayo; Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi
The debate on the impacts of Covid -19 pandemic on exchange rate and its volatility is up and running. This study examines the case of Nigeria. Daily data from March 20, 2020 to September 3, 2021 for relevant variables were utilized. The bounds test for cointegration and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and GARCH (1,1) methods were employed to examine the effect. The bounds co-integration test results disclosed that there is both short-run and long-run relationship among the variables. The result from the ARDL estimation shows that new Covid-19 cases has a positive but insignificant effect on parallel market exchange rate while numbers of recovered patients from covid-19, oil and stock prices negatively and significantly affects parallel market exchange rate. Results from the GARCH also indicates that new Covid-19 cases have negative, albeit, insignificant effect on the parallel market exchange rate volatility while recovered cases of Covid-19 has negative and significant effect. Further, oil and stock prices have positive and significant effect on parallel market exchange rate volatility. Following these results, it was recommended that government should embark on policy that will diversify its revenue base and also intensify efforts on preventing any forms of pandemic so as not only to achieve the objective of increasing the value of Nigeria currency but also to reduce its volatility. Keywords: Pandemics, Foreign exchange, Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) Model
Natural Resource Endowment and Economic Growth; Evidence from some selected sub-Saharan African countries
(Malete Journal of Accounting and Finance, 2023-12) Felix Gbenga Olaifa; Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi; Oluwasegun Olawale Benjamin; Philip Olugbenga Adebayo
Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are on average blessed with relatively large number of natural resources when compared with other regions of the world. Despite this obvious natural resource endowment, economic growth on the sub-region has not been encouraging. This scenario has prompted studies geared towards examining the extent to which natural resource endowment has impacted on growth in resource rich Sub-Saharan African countries. The objective of this study is therefore to investigate the nexus between ownership of natural resources by some selected SSA countries and their performance in terms of growth. Seven countries in SSA were selected including, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. Data on economic growth, arable land, forest land rent, tertiary education enrolment, and labour force growth obtained from World Development Indictors of the World Bank were used. Using the Pedroni Panel cointegration estimation, result showed that overall, natural resource endowment does not translate to growth as is expected. Hence it is concluded that ownership of natural resources does not translate to growth in SSA. Although high rent on these resources increases government revenue in the immediate, the disincentive it creates to investors and cultivators of these resources in the long run should be the uppermost consideration The study therefore recommends that while authorities are formulating and implementing policies as regards rent on natural resources, they should carefully bear in mind the possible long-run implications on growth. Keywords: Natural resource, Economic growth, Sub-Saharan Africa, Endowment, Pedroni Panel cointegration.
On the Economic Growth Effect of Population: Evidence from World most and least Populous countries
(Acta Universitatis Danubius, 2023) Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi; Felix Gbenga Olaifa; Boluwatife Amusan
Abstract: This study assesses the importance of population growth in economic growth in the six most populous and six least populous countries in the world for data spanning 1985 to 2022. Results from the panel autoregressive distributed lag indicate that population has no significant effect on economic growth in the short run in any of the country groups but it shows positive relationship. Population enhances economic growth more in the most populous countries than in the least populous countries in the long run. In addition, population is persistent in impacting economic growth of the most populous countries. Decrease in unemployment rate enhances economic growth rate more in the least populous countries than in the most populous countries. Human capital development is also important for economic growth and more pronounced in the least populous countries. Following these results, it is concluded that population matters importantly for economic growth and that the most populous country is more likely to experience higher economic growth than the least populous country. The study recommends that that a carefully planned population growth strategy will be beneficial to both country groups. In the most populous countries, plans that will allow for more inflow of peoples should be looked forward into because most of these countries are embarking on birth control in order to reduce population. It is also recommended that the least populous countries should ensure that a considerable size of the population translates to human capital. Keywords: Economic activity; demography; Panel ARDL; human capital; country group
What are the Drivers of Human Capital Development in Nigeria
(Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 2018) Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi; Musa I Biala; Felix Gbenga Olaifa
Human development is worrisomely weak in Nigeria despite several efforts by the government to improve it. Specifically, about half of the citizens still live under $1.9 a day. Consequently, the World Bank ranked Nigeria low among human development countries in 2016. This study employs Sen’s capability approach to investigate the drivers of human development. To gain a deeper understanding of how human development is influenced by its drivers, the components of human development—education, health and income indexes—are modelled and estimated using data covering 1990 to 2016. Results from the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method show that human development is affected, albeit differently, by these drivers both in the short run and in the long run. Specifically, funds from international donors and remittances show evidence of “fungibility” while control of corruption is good for human welfare. Immunization against measles raises health status but much still need to be done in this area. Carbon emission is detrimental to human development and so, it is recommended that this should be addressed with effective rules of law. Keywords: Human Development, Education Index, Health Index, Income Index, Autoregressive Distributed Lag

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