Browsing by Author "Ahmed Oluwatobi ADEKUNLE"

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    A REVISIT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND TRADE FLOW IN NIGERIA
    (Journal of Studies in Social Sciences and Humanities, 2022) Ahmed Oluwatobi ADEKUNLE
    Since the advent of floating exchange rate in Nigeria, exchange rate has been highly volatile. Excessive volatility has severe implications for international trade. This study revisits the long- standing debates on the link between exchange rate volatility and trade flow for the Nigerian economy, 1980-2020. We employ the Granger causality tests based on VECM\VAR model. The results show evidence for a bi-directional causality from trade to exchange rate volatility and vice versa. Since the Nigeria seeks export promotion, there is need to undertake measures that will check excessive fluctuations beyond fundamentals needed for the. Hence, we suggest that monetary authority should continue its periodic exchange rate intervention to curtail excessive swings. This should be carefully done to maintain policy rate that will not be counter- productive.
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    On Export and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Selected West African Countries
    (International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2022) Ahmed Oluwatobi ADEKUNLE; Adedeji Daniel GBADEBO; Joseph Olorunfemi AKANDE
    The effect of export on economic growth has attracted much attention amongst researchers and practitioners. Conventional theories posit that output growth is attainable if countries produce and export the goods in which they have comparative advantages or are resourcefully endowed. Available evidence, however, sometimes present negative or inconclusive results on export-growth nexus. The study applied the panel cointegration and panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) on a sample of thirteen selected West African countries for the period 1990-2018. The result shows existence of cointegration amongst the variables. The PCSE results indicate positive long run relationships between export and growth, on one hand and exchange rate and growth, on the other. The study recommends measures to improve trade and attain growth in region such as the complete removal all forms of export restrictions and tariff on primary products, as well as administrative tax exemptions for domestic firms that engage in production of export goods
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    orecasting with Competing Models of Daily Bitcoin Price in R
    (2022) Ahmed Oluwatobi ADEKUNLE
    Bitcoin price exhibits patterns predictable on its historical pasts. We adopt ARIMA(auto), ARIMA(fix) models and the Holt-Winters filter (HWF) with trend plus additive seasonal HWF (𝛾[0,1]), and no seasonality HWF (𝛾[False]) to forecast the price of Bitcoin under three datasets–Actual (observed), Polynomial (fitted) and STL-Trend (fitted). We apply daily time-series from 1/09/2014–28/12/2020, and establish 18 models to forecast the price of Bitcoin. The results show that HWF (𝛾[0,1]) with lower limit fitted on STL-Trend provides the best prediction on the first training-sample, while ARIMA(fix) fitted on actual data outperform in the second training-set with the smallest Mean-Absolute-Error (MAE). The training-set forecast performance of the ARIMA(fix) for the actual function provides better performance with the least MAE. The HWF is appropriate for prediction of the daily Bitcoin price with the generalise STL-Trend function, but ARIMA(fix) is more accurate for the actual series.
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    The Debt-Growth Nexus in Nigeria: An Empirical Evidence
    (International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2022) Ahmed Oluwatobi ADEKUNLE
    This study examines debt-growth nexus in developing countries, Nigeria, using annual data from 1986 to 2020. The data were sourced from CBN Statistical bulletin and WDI, ARDL techniques were employed to analyse the data. The findings of the study showed that domestic debt outstanding is negative related to growth in the long run though it is growth enhancing in short-run. External debt is negative related to advancement in long run while in short run is positive related. In the long run education is positive connected to growth but negative related to growth in the short run. The findings suggested that the national authority should channel both external and domestic debt to the education and infrastructural expansion which can lunch the economy to be more productive and diversified