Department of Economics

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Browsing Department of Economics by Author "Felix Gbenga Olaifa"

Now showing 1 - 11 of 11
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    Analysis of Trade Effects of Parallel Exchange Rate in Nigeria
    (Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 2024) Oluwatosin Juliana Oyetayo; Felix Gbenga Olaifa; Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi
    The study examines the potency of parallel exchange rates in the movement of international trade in Nigeria. The monetary authorities have embarked on various exchange rate regimes basically because the supply of foreign exchange is not enough to meet the demand. Consequently, a parallel market for exchange rates exists and has become a strong and functional market in the country. But the reason for managing foreign exchange and by extension, introducing various exchange rate regimes was to correct the balance of trade disequilibrium. Yet the balance of trade deteriorates, particularly that of non-oil trade balance. Does the parallel exchange rate contribute to this or does it ameliorate it?
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    Are the Determinants of Imports Similar Across Manufactured Products? Evidence from Nigeria
    (Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 2018-12) Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi; Felix Gbenga Olaifa; Rashidat Sumbola Akande
    The study investigates the determinants of selected manufactured imports in Nigeria with a special focus on the role of domestic production. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) in the context of new trade theory was utilised with data coverage between 1985 and 2016. Results show that imports of various manufactured products are affected differently by some factors. In particular, domestic output of electrical & electronics have a significant and negative effect on own imports. However, there was no significant effect of domestic production of petroleum products on imports of the same goods. Also, the effect of domestic output of food & beverages on imports of same product is positive. Further, the sensitivity of imports to exchange rate changes differ across products, in some it have immediate effect while in some it delays for a year. In the same vein, while GDP is an important driver of imports of some products, it is unimportant for some. Also, it is only food & beverages imports that significantly respond to change in tariffs. The overall conclusion from this study is that drivers of import demand differ across products.
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    Assessment of the Impact of Globalization on Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1988 - 2022
    (Gusau Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 2023) Halimat Sadiat Ajayi; Sheriff Alade Bamidele; Felix Gbenga Olaifa; Mufutau Ayinla Abdul-Yakeen; Mubarak Tahir Abubakar
    The idea that globalization is one of the most important drivers of economic growth has gained wide acceptance in recent times. The study empirically assesses the effects globalization on economic growth of Nigeria. Specifically, the study identifies how globalization affects the progress of the Nigeria economy.The study empirically investigates if there is a short-runand long run relationship between economic globalization and economic growth in Nigeria. The study examined the extent at which social and political globalization affect Nigeria economic growth.The study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) models to examine the relationship between general globalization, economic globalization, social globalization, political globalization and economic growth in Nigeria. The study made use of annual data series dating from1988 to 2022 sourced from World Development Indicators (WDI), the database of World Bank and of Swiss Economic Institute data base. The study reveals that general globalization, economic globalization, social globalization and political globalization have a significant positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria.The study therefore recommends that, for Nigeria to catch high levels of growth levels, Nigeria should endeavor to improve on the institutional quality and good governance in Nigeria.When this is in place, further economic and social integration from foreign countries will be enhanced and economic development will be achieved. Also, Nigeria government should widen its market through either improved export of commodities and services as well as import of machines and production inputs.Further integration of the Nigerian economy with other economies through a productive capacity should be a focus of policy by the Nigerian government and policy markers. Keywords : Economic, social, political globalization , economic growth
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    Determinants of Intra Sub-Saharan African Trade: Evidence from ECOWAS and CENSAD countries
    (Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 2020) Felix Gbenga Olaifa; Sodiq O. Jimoh
    This study investigates the determinants of intra-regional trade in the Economic of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Community of Sahel-Saharan Sates (CEN-SAD) over the period of 1995-2018.The study employs the modified Poisson models, which captures the source of zero counts. Data on the real exchange rate, population, and gross domestic product were sourced from World Bank Development Indicators. Import flow, time of import, and time of export were computed from WITS (COMTRADE). Further, the study obtained data on voice and account, law and order, government effect, regulatory quality, reduction in political violence, control of corruption from World Wide Governance indicator. The results of the study indicated that imports within ECOWAS are driven by one governance variable or the other either in the importing countries or the partner countries. Besides, trade facilitation is a binding constraint to imports, while population and GDP are important drivers of intra-ECOWAS trade. For CEN-SAD, it is evident that the gravity variables are responsible for imports, whereas governance variables have no significant effect on imports. The implication of these results is that authorities in ECOWAS and CEN-SAD should strengthen governance institutions as doing so will boost trade within the region. Also, it is necessary for government, particularly in CEN-SAD, to come up with policies that will allow for accountability and transparency.
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    Enquiring into the Sustainability of Nigerian Economy: A Time series Analysis
    (Market Forces, 2014-12) Mufutau Ayinla Abdul-yakeen; Kola Subair; Felix Gbenga Olaifa
    The study obtains time-series data of three independent variables (Public Expenditure, Debt, and Reserve) and a dependent variable (Gross National Product) between 1971 and 2011 in Nigeria with the aim of verifying the sustainability of the economy. Following Keynesian Model, it formulates hypotheses, estimates parameters, and uses Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to test their significance by using E-View 7. It discovers that Nigerian economy is solvent and sustainable with positive relationship between Public Income, Expenditure and Reserve but negative relationship between the Public Income and Public Debt. It recommends increase and judicious use of external debts and appreciates internalization of public reserves by disbursement of some of the proceeds to the Traditional Financial Institution (TFI) to attain the desired economic objectives of Nigeria. Despite its applicability, desirability and productivity; the surmountable limitations of its recommendation are fear of corruption and marginalization among others. Key Words: Assets, Nigeria, Solvency, Sustainability, Traditional Financial System.
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    Exchange Rate Volatility Effect of Covid-19 Pandemic: The Nigeria case
    (Department of Economics, University of Lagos, 2022-03) Felix Gbenga Olaifa; Oluwatosin J. Oyetayo; Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi
    The debate on the impacts of Covid -19 pandemic on exchange rate and its volatility is up and running. This study examines the case of Nigeria. Daily data from March 20, 2020 to September 3, 2021 for relevant variables were utilized. The bounds test for cointegration and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and GARCH (1,1) methods were employed to examine the effect. The bounds co-integration test results disclosed that there is both short-run and long-run relationship among the variables. The result from the ARDL estimation shows that new Covid-19 cases has a positive but insignificant effect on parallel market exchange rate while numbers of recovered patients from covid-19, oil and stock prices negatively and significantly affects parallel market exchange rate. Results from the GARCH also indicates that new Covid-19 cases have negative, albeit, insignificant effect on the parallel market exchange rate volatility while recovered cases of Covid-19 has negative and significant effect. Further, oil and stock prices have positive and significant effect on parallel market exchange rate volatility. Following these results, it was recommended that government should embark on policy that will diversify its revenue base and also intensify efforts on preventing any forms of pandemic so as not only to achieve the objective of increasing the value of Nigeria currency but also to reduce its volatility. Keywords: Pandemics, Foreign exchange, Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) Model
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    Government Capital Expenditure and Private Investment In Nigeria: Co-integration Regression and Toda-Yamamoto Causality Analysis.
    (Advanced Journal of Social Science, 2019-07-19) Felix Gbenga Olaifa; Oluwasegun Olawale Benjamin
    This paper analyzed the relationship between government capital expenditure and private investment in Nigeria using time series data spanning from 1981 to 2016. Government capital expenditure was disaggregated into different components and ADF unit root test was employed to establish the stationarity properties of the variables in the model. The result of Johanson co-integration test revealed that the variables have long run relationship. Co-integration regression results suggested that capital expenditure on physical assets and defense displaced private sector investment while government capital expenditure on human capital and public debt servicing promote private sector investment in Nigeria. The results of T-Y causality revealed the bidirectional causality between private sector investment and government capital expenditure in Nigeria. Based on these findings, the paper recommends that government capital expenditure should be channel to human capital in order to promote private sector investment in Nigeria. In addition, the Nigerian government should pay more attention to capital expenditure on physical assets since it has a significant impact on private sector investment. Lastly, Nigeria government should address the issue of budget delay, corruption, and mismanagement in Nigerian institutions. Keywords: Government Capital Expenditure, Infrastructure, Defense and Internal Security, Human Capital and Private Sector Investment.
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    IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON DOMESTIC CREDIT: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA
    (Faculty of Management and Social Sciences, Kwara State University, Malete, Nigeria, 2024-05-23) Yusuf Toyin Yusuf; Sodiq Olaiwola Jimoh; Felix Gbenga Olaifa; Fatai Akosile
    This study investigates the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and domestic credit dynamics in Nigeria. Employing non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, this research explores the effects of Real Effective Exchange Rate (RER) on Domestic Credit (DOD) over a significant period. The findings of the non-linear ARDL analysis reveal a notable positive short-run effect of RER on DOD. Specifically, the depreciation of the naira appears to discourage market participants from assuming higher risks, resulting in a decrease in credit volumes. Conversely, an appreciation of the naira encourages market participants to take greater risks, leading toan improvement in credit volumes. However, the linear ARDL analysis demonstrates a contrasting negative effect of RER on DOD. In the context of the linear ARDL results, the appreciation of the naira seemingly discourages market participants from taking increased risks, consequently causing a deterioration in credit volumes. Based on the findings, a key policy recommendation emerges. Policymakers are advised to consider devaluing the naira to dissuade market participants from assuming higher risks, thereby potentially reducing credit volumes in the short run. This recommendation aims to address the observed dynamics between exchange rate movements and credit volumes, offering a strategic approach to influence market behaviors and credit outcomes in Nigeria's economic landscape.
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    Natural Resource Endowment and Economic Growth; Evidence from some selected sub-Saharan African countries
    (Malete Journal of Accounting and Finance, 2023-12) Felix Gbenga Olaifa; Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi; Oluwasegun Olawale Benjamin; Philip Olugbenga Adebayo
    Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are on average blessed with relatively large number of natural resources when compared with other regions of the world. Despite this obvious natural resource endowment, economic growth on the sub-region has not been encouraging. This scenario has prompted studies geared towards examining the extent to which natural resource endowment has impacted on growth in resource rich Sub-Saharan African countries. The objective of this study is therefore to investigate the nexus between ownership of natural resources by some selected SSA countries and their performance in terms of growth. Seven countries in SSA were selected including, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. Data on economic growth, arable land, forest land rent, tertiary education enrolment, and labour force growth obtained from World Development Indictors of the World Bank were used. Using the Pedroni Panel cointegration estimation, result showed that overall, natural resource endowment does not translate to growth as is expected. Hence it is concluded that ownership of natural resources does not translate to growth in SSA. Although high rent on these resources increases government revenue in the immediate, the disincentive it creates to investors and cultivators of these resources in the long run should be the uppermost consideration The study therefore recommends that while authorities are formulating and implementing policies as regards rent on natural resources, they should carefully bear in mind the possible long-run implications on growth. Keywords: Natural resource, Economic growth, Sub-Saharan Africa, Endowment, Pedroni Panel cointegration.
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    On the Economic Growth Effect of Population: Evidence from World most and least Populous countries
    (Acta Universitatis Danubius, 2023) Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi; Felix Gbenga Olaifa; Boluwatife Amusan
    Abstract: This study assesses the importance of population growth in economic growth in the six most populous and six least populous countries in the world for data spanning 1985 to 2022. Results from the panel autoregressive distributed lag indicate that population has no significant effect on economic growth in the short run in any of the country groups but it shows positive relationship. Population enhances economic growth more in the most populous countries than in the least populous countries in the long run. In addition, population is persistent in impacting economic growth of the most populous countries. Decrease in unemployment rate enhances economic growth rate more in the least populous countries than in the most populous countries. Human capital development is also important for economic growth and more pronounced in the least populous countries. Following these results, it is concluded that population matters importantly for economic growth and that the most populous country is more likely to experience higher economic growth than the least populous country. The study recommends that that a carefully planned population growth strategy will be beneficial to both country groups. In the most populous countries, plans that will allow for more inflow of peoples should be looked forward into because most of these countries are embarking on birth control in order to reduce population. It is also recommended that the least populous countries should ensure that a considerable size of the population translates to human capital. Keywords: Economic activity; demography; Panel ARDL; human capital; country group
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    What are the Drivers of Human Capital Development in Nigeria
    (Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 2018) Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi; Musa I Biala; Felix Gbenga Olaifa
    Human development is worrisomely weak in Nigeria despite several efforts by the government to improve it. Specifically, about half of the citizens still live under $1.9 a day. Consequently, the World Bank ranked Nigeria low among human development countries in 2016. This study employs Sen’s capability approach to investigate the drivers of human development. To gain a deeper understanding of how human development is influenced by its drivers, the components of human development—education, health and income indexes—are modelled and estimated using data covering 1990 to 2016. Results from the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method show that human development is affected, albeit differently, by these drivers both in the short run and in the long run. Specifically, funds from international donors and remittances show evidence of “fungibility” while control of corruption is good for human welfare. Immunization against measles raises health status but much still need to be done in this area. Carbon emission is detrimental to human development and so, it is recommended that this should be addressed with effective rules of law. Keywords: Human Development, Education Index, Health Index, Income Index, Autoregressive Distributed Lag