Scholarly Publication

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Browsing Scholarly Publication by Author "Olaifa, Felix Gbenga"

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    Determinants of Welfare Effect of Trade Flows in sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Evidence from SADC and COMESA
    (Public Administration & Regional Studies, 2023) Olaifa, Felix Gbenga; Oluwasegun Olawale Benjamin; Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi
    This study investigated the determinants and welfare effects of intra-Sub Saharan Africa trade from 1996 to 2021. The study utilized Negative Binomial Pseudo Maximum Likelihood for the analysis. The study's findings revealed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population, distance, time taken for import, bilateral real exchange rate, voice and accountability, law and order, and government effectiveness are the key determinants of trade flows in SADC. Furthermore, the results indicated that GDP, population, distance, common official language, landlocked of both countries, time taken for import procedures to be completed, bilateral real exchange rate, reduction in political instability and absence of violence, and regulatory quality determined trade flows in COMESA. The study also found that intra-regional trade leads to welfare reduction for SADC member countries and a welfare-enhancing situation for COMESA. Thus, the study recommended that policymakers give transportation facilities the required attention to reduce trade barriers. Also, the policymakers in SADC should introduce policies and incentives that will encourage members to import from other members of the bloc. Finally, policies towards making the governance institutions and security apparatus viable should be implemented to promote trade and enhance welfare in SADC and COMESA. Keywords: trade flow; welfare; sub-saharan African; sadc; comesa; NBPML
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    Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth in Nigeria; A cointegration Analysis
    (2013) Olaifa, Felix Gbenga; Kolawole Subair; Musa Ilias Biala
    Trade liberalization is one of the most controversial policies in international economics and finance. Copious of arguments have been put forward about if free trade and reduction of trade barriers will help the economy or not. Those in favour of the policy believe that it can stimulate economic growth of African economies while others maintained that trade liberalization may not provide positive contribution to long run growth of African economies. This study adopts the ordinary least squares in estimating the influence of trade liberalization on economic growth in Nigeria between1970 and 2012 with a view to examining whether a long term relationship exists between the two and also to check for structural change that may have occurred with the implementation of a free trade regime in 1986.Trade liberalization was conceived as openness and proxied as the ratio of total trade to GDP. Time series data sourced from the World Development indicator (WDI) of the World Bank and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and annual reports were analysed. Result shows that liberalization supports economic growth in Nigeria with an evidence of a long run relationship. Strong evidence was found to support a structural change taking place in 1986 with the adoption of free trade policy. However export was reported to be negatively related to growth. The study concluded by recommending that an enabling environment that will engender further growth such as better infrastructural base, adequate financing support adherence to international best practice in export and sound institutional structure be put in place for sustainability. KEYWORDS Openness, trade liberalization, economic growth and structural change.